And I have no stomach for commenting on the crazy fantasies of “political experts” who’ve already scribbled a hundred articles with a million different versions.
In New Russia there’ll be no political experts, indeed – we’ll feed them to wild animals at the Zoo, to the kids’ delight..
Let me tell all of you at once how I see the situation.
But first, the three important things you must know when trying to analyse any actions of the government.
1. Within the government reign disorder and chaos. 90 per cent of political decisions are the result of accident, coincidence, or spontaneous decisions influenced by short-term situations. Here I’m speaking not only of Russia’s government but of any government; just read any politicians’ memoirs, they describe it very well.
2. People in the Kremlin are neither superior to you intellectually, nor better informed.
3. If you read just two trustworthy papers every morning and follow 2 to 5 more or less independent TV stations and news websites, and several journalists are on your Twitter reading list, then your level of awareness is just as good as Putin’s.
I mean to say, Putin knows, of course, when someone is likely to resign, whose fur coat storage room is bigger, and what really happened to ex-minister Serdyukov, but you’re likely to predict the situation just as well as him.
Where does Putin get his information from?
From the same sources as you. Besides that, “non-public sociology” lacks quality. Besides that, the FSB's [formerly, the KGB] analytical information is of poorer quality still. Besides that, the analytical essays of various “political experts” are below the mark because those experts know that if they publish their nonsense, people will mock them. But the general public are not supposed to see classified information. Sure, this is a simplification, but in general this is the way it is.
Now let’s talk about my situation.
I knew for sure that I would get a real prison term.
After I was sentenced, my wife Yulia explained to public that:
- my sources confirmed the guity verdict a few days before the sentence.
- two days before my conviction I had a phone call from Kirov city informing me that three cells in the Kirov detention center were under repair and additional riot police forces were readied in Kirov. The city is not very big so it’s impossible to hide anything there.
It stands to reason that the phrase “I knew for sure” is somewhat relative. Today it’s this and tomorrow it’s that. Some tell you, “They’ll jail you for sure” and others say, “It's certain that they’ll give you a suspended sentence”.
If you thought about it too much, you would be at your wits end. That is why even though I recognised the situation was rather serious, I tried not to lose any sleep over it and just kept my mind on my work, instead. [...]
So, Putin’s verdict of five years in prison for me and four years for Petr Ofitserov, which was pronounced by judge Blinov on July 18, took everything into account: the Moscow mayoral race, the potato crop, the legitimacy of acting mayor Sobyanin, the illegitimacy of the North Saharan government, the alleged phone calls from Barack Obama, fear of political ostracism, Putin’s view of his own toughness, and a forecast of mass protests.
After the sentence there were dialogues like this:
- Mr Putin.
- Yes, Veronica.
- Here’s Mr Skumbrievich (Volodin/ Malkin/ Zalkind), with a report.
- Let him in.
- Good morning, Mr Putin. Following your orders, we are monitoring the situation, so I’d like to make a report.
- Hi, Skumbrievich. Well, what is it?
- Well, we think things have gone off course and we maybe facing some problems. We suggest we take some time out.
- Interior Minister Kolokoltshev reported to me that everything is under control.
- He can clean the clocks, of course, but it would gum up our plan. Remember the 5th of December [December 5, 2011 is the day of the mass protest against election fraud].
We expect the number of protesters to increase from 2,000 to 15,000. It’s going to be the largest unauthorised protest since then.
Demographically, 80 per cent of them are males under 35. What if they burn something down?
- Is it possible?
- Bortnikov reports there’s no focal point of the protest. The phone monitoring and agents confirm the spontaneous nature of the protest. We’ve made a list of the leaders to be arrested but half of them are in Kirov [attending Alexey Navalny’s trial] and the rest can’t arrange anything. What if they set the Parliament building on fire?
- Ouch. .. We don’t want Parliament to be burnt down.
- Besides, we’ll have to consider people's emotional reactions, and provocations have already broken out. Here, I’ve printed it out for you:
[The text: “When kids, everyone used to fight till bleeding. Fighting till bleeding meant victory.
Today Alexey Navalny has been sentenced to 5 years in prison.
You can support Alexey Navalny and Petr Ofitserov who got a 4 year prison sentence, today at 7 pm in Manezhnaya Square in Moscow, London, Krasnodar, and other cities”].
- They've made put it public online.
- We must put an end to it. These instigators seduce the public. We need to get them under control.
- We do control them. But it's a mass phenomenon. A lot of people have seen these images. Look here [...]
- It’s just the creative community amusing themselves. They think all office hamsters [a contemptuous nickname for internet users] will take to the streets.
- They’re rats, not hamsters. We’ve been pampering them for too long.
- Quite so, Mr Putin. And look, they’re appealing for sympathy, it’s just a classic provocation:
[The text: “Folks, it’s thanks to you that now I’m alone.”]
- Has it been published just now?
- Yes, just 15 minutes after the sentence.
- I see they were prepared..
- The chief of police, Kolokoltsev, says that to ensure a “soft” containment of the crowd, some 1,000 people may be detained. But you know, a thousand detainees today will mean five thousand of their relatives tomorrow. We can accomodate a thousand of them at police stations, but the rest can only be held at military bases.
- Perhaps, they’ll go home at night.
- The majority will, but on the whole their mood is aggressive. What if they burn a car or two? An adrenaline rush, and we’ll face problems.
- “Burn, burn”! You’re like a parrot. Don’t tempt fate.
- The Foreign Ministry strongly objects. They have no doubt Europe will adopt the “Magnitsky List”. And if we make a fuss now, they’ll adopt it right away.
Yakunin is a bundle of nerves. You played a practical joke on him about his fur coat storage room.
- OK, what do you want from me?
- If we’re going to step backward, let’s do it right away. Otherwise it’ll be too late to get the message out to the public.
- OK, you’ve convinced me. We’ll step aside and let the hissing goose go and then blindside him from behind, and after that we’ll cook the soup.
- As we always do, Mr Putin. This plan works. The hamster thinks himself clever, but he’s running on a wheel.
- OK, call Chaika [Prosecutor General], and I’ll notify him.
- Hello, Mr Putin.
- Listen here, Chaika: Skumbrievich will call you soon. Let’s change the action plan for our bawler. Now we’ll play a longer game.
- Roger, Vladimir Vladimirovich. We'll do it.
Sure, it’s only a poor imitation of Vladimir Sorokin’s The Queue
And please, don’t look for Mr Skumbrievich in the President’s Administration’s telephone book.
But I’m sure it was something like that.
Moreover, it's been that way so many times before.
They stepped aside and let the hissing goose go.
[link to the article “Putin Visits Cemetry, Lays Flowers on a Football Fan’s Grave”]
And after the public calmed down and forgot about the accident -
he made a blindside from behind.
A step aside: “Message to Bolotnaya: Dmitry Medvedev Annouces Political Reform”
A blindside from behind:
[12 people have been accused and tried in the “Bolotnaya Square case”’]
And every time they repeat the same moves.From Pikalyovo to Kondopoga [the towns where mass protests were held].
Thus, what happened to me was nothing new and unexpected.
1. Let’s make it a rule to look behind.
2. In any unclear situation, set Parliament on fire.
Originally posted by navalny on July 23rd, 14:03